AUSTIN (KXAN) — For several days the First Warning Weather Team has been highlighting the potential for some storms on Monday and the risk continues, even though the threat has been lowering.
In no way do we expect a repeat of the tornado outbreak from two weeks ago.
Timing
Daytime Monday: We only expect areas of drizzle and a few spotty, streamer showers during the daylight hours of Monday.
Monday evening: The chance for storms gradually goes up, especially in parts of the Hill Country.
Late Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning: The best chance for storms in the Austin metro counties would be from just before midnight Monday night until as late as 5 a.m. That being said, storm coverage should be isolated.
Storms end: Storms remain possible until as late as 7 a.m. Tuesday in our eastern counties.
Severe weather threat
The risk of severe weather has been dropping as it appears most storms will form north and northeast of Central Texas.
Most of Travis, all of Hays and most of our eastern counties are at a “marginal risk” of severe weather (level 1 out of 5 risk).
Northwest Travis, most of Williamson County and most of the Hill Country are at a “slight risk” of severe weather (level 2 out of 5 risk).
The highest severe risk Monday evening through Tuesday morning is northeast of Waco through Dallas and east into Louisiana where an “enhanced risk” (level 3 out of 5 risk) is in place from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday into early Tuesday.
Impacts
Overall impacts will be limited and those of you wanting more rainfall will likely be left wanting. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to whether storms will even form at all over Central Texas.
If storms DO form, they have the potential to be severe.
In effect, it’s a very conditional severe weather risk. If storms develop they could be strong or severe with large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado risk. At the same time, if the ingredients don’t come together we might not get storms at all, let alone severe weather.
Rainfall
Rainfall amounts will be light from the drizzle and spotty showers we get during the day on Monday.
Any storms that do develop will have the potential to drop anywhere from a quarter inch to one inch of rainfall in a short time, but areas getting that much rain will be very localized to where those storms form.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we continue to adjust the forecast as we get new data all the time to help guide our chances for storms to form.